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Title: Week 6 Games Post by: Catch Prothro on October 01, 2012, 09:03:08 AM Several good games coming up this Saturday, even with Bama off. We should have a better idea of the power in the SEC with:
LSU v. Florida Georgai v. USCe And the bottom of the SEC divisions with: Arkansas v. Auburn Vandy v. Missouri Also: Texas AM v. Ole Miss Big12 games include: West Virginia v. Texas Oklahoma v. Texas Tech The Big10 has: Nebraska v. Ohio State PAC12 has: Washington v. Oregon Nonconference games include: Miami v. Notre Dame These would be tough pickem games. Any others? Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: pmull on October 01, 2012, 09:19:03 AM Very good games this weekend. An ESPN article called this weekend SEC Separation Saturday. I think that title is apporpriate.
Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 01, 2012, 09:32:58 AM That looks like a pretty good list.
Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Leroy on October 01, 2012, 09:53:05 AM That's a good list CP...I don't know if I can even get my ususal 3 or 4 right picking straight up on most of them much less picking against the spread.
:-[ Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Catch Prothro on October 01, 2012, 11:54:09 AM Very good games this weekend. An ESPN article called this weekend SEC Separation Saturday. I think that title is apporpriate. Good title. I guess they assume Bama has already separated itself! :DTitle: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Catch Prothro on October 01, 2012, 01:01:58 PM That's a good list CP...I don't know if I can even get my ususal 3 or 4 right picking straight up on most of them much less picking against the spread. I hear you!:-[ Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Marshal Dillon on October 01, 2012, 01:40:59 PM :-X Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Bandit on October 01, 2012, 08:07:38 PM Arkansas @ Auburn. I was wondering what the spread should be, and honestly as bad as these two teams are, they should spot both teams 14 points.
Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 01, 2012, 09:01:38 PM Arkansas @ Auburn. I was wondering what the spread should be, and honestly as bad as these two teams are, they should spot both teams 14 points. :lol: Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Catch Prothro on October 01, 2012, 09:01:54 PM Arkansas @ Auburn. I was wondering what the spread should be, and honestly as bad as these two teams are, they should spot both teams 14 points. Auburn is favored by 10Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 01, 2012, 09:21:57 PM Does anyone have any other game suggestions besides these? I will probably post the games tomorrow.
Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Sqwig on October 01, 2012, 09:45:42 PM Given my less than stellar record it likely doesn't matter what games you choose.
Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Bandit on October 01, 2012, 09:46:16 PM State at KY might be closer than the experts think. State hasn't played anyone away, and KY had a decent half at home against USCe. :dunno:
Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Catch Prothro on October 01, 2012, 10:26:53 PM State at KY might be closer than the experts think. State hasn't played anyone away, and KY had a decent half at home against USCe. :dunno: This game will be televised as the SEC morning game (SEC Network).The Missouri v. Vandy game is only on ESPN Gameplan, and it's at night. So, definitely Miss State v. KY is a better game to pick than the MO Vandy game, if only because we can watch it Saturday morning. (The rest of the games listed are televised.) Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Catch Prothro on October 02, 2012, 09:15:50 AM For clarity, we currently are at:
LSU v. Florida Georgia v. USCe Arkansas v. Auburn Mississippi State v.Kentucky Texas AM v. Ole Miss West Virginia v. Texas Oklahoma v. Texas Tech Nebraska v. Ohio State Washington v. Oregon Miami v. Notre Dame Half the games are SEC, but it's SEC Separation Saturday! Any other options? Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: bama57 on October 02, 2012, 11:51:17 AM Given my less than stellar record it likely doesn't matter what games you choose. True that! not much competition down here at the bottom since ricky left :-[Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: BAMAWV on October 02, 2012, 12:02:41 PM Given my less than stellar record it likely doesn't matter what games you choose. True that! not much competition down here at the bottom since ricky left :-[Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: ALTideUp on October 02, 2012, 02:07:31 PM Given my less than stellar record it likely doesn't matter what games you choose. True that! not much competition down here at the bottom since ricky left :-[Plenty of games left. As more data are accumulated and chance gives way to the authority of a larger sample of observations, we will all end up between an average of 4-6 and 6-4, within the poll's margin of error. Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Leroy on October 02, 2012, 02:22:07 PM Given my less than stellar record it likely doesn't matter what games you choose. True that! not much competition down here at the bottom since ricky left :-[Plenty of games left. As more data are accumulated and chance gives way to the authority of a larger sample of observations, we will all end up between an average of 4-6 and 6-4, within the poll's margin of error. :-\ Wanna bet? :-[ I'll confess that it used to be that when I was stuck and couldn't decide on a Pick I would just look at Ricky's picks and go the other way. Now it seems the best chance of winning is to just copy Ricky's picks and then hope to edge him out on the tiebreaker ;) Roll TIDE Brother Ricky #+ Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: pmull on October 02, 2012, 02:24:48 PM Given my less than stellar record it likely doesn't matter what games you choose. True that! not much competition down here at the bottom since ricky left :-[Plenty of games left. As more data are accumulated and chance gives way to the authority of a larger sample of observations, we will all end up between an average of 4-6 and 6-4, within the poll's margin of error. 4-6 is looking pretty good to me right now. I've had four bad weeks in a roll. :( Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 02, 2012, 03:06:24 PM Given my less than stellar record it likely doesn't matter what games you choose. True that! not much competition down here at the bottom since ricky left :-[Plenty of games left. As more data are accumulated and chance gives way to the authority of a larger sample of observations, we will all end up between an average of 4-6 and 6-4, within the poll's margin of error. I don't agree with this. This would be true if the outcome of the picks where purely chance, but it is not. The betting lines are set so that there is an equal amount of money on both sides. Therefore the betting lines are set based on perception of what the difference in score will be. To the degree that you are able to predict the outcomes better than the mass perception, you will win. In other words, if you can identify where all the lemmings are buying into the hype of a team and therefore skewing the betting lines, you will increase your odds above simple chance. It is very similar to the stock market actually. Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: BAMAWV on October 02, 2012, 03:14:09 PM Given my less than stellar record it likely doesn't matter what games you choose. True that! not much competition down here at the bottom since ricky left :-[Plenty of games left. As more data are accumulated and chance gives way to the authority of a larger sample of observations, we will all end up between an average of 4-6 and 6-4, within the poll's margin of error. I don't agree with this. This would be true if the outcome of the picks where purely chance, but it is not. The betting lines are set so that there is an equal amount of money on both sides. Therefore the betting lines are set based on perception of what the difference in score will be. To the degree that you are able to predict the outcomes better than the mass perception, you will win. In other words, if you can identify where all the lemmings are buying into the hype of a team and therefore skewing the betting lines, you will increase your odds above simple chance. It is very similar to the stock market actually. Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 02, 2012, 03:15:21 PM Let's take a look at last years winner for example. Jamos had a record of 102-70 if you count all the games instead of dropping the 2 lowest weekly scores. I believe his record was that good because he has better insight into how the games will turn out compared to the mass perception among people who are betting on the games.
Now if you make your picks by just randomly going through there and not paying attention, then yes, you will probably come in somewhere close to 50% given a large enough sample. However if you look at each game and study the two teams involved, look at how they have fared in the previous weeks, who they have played against, pay attention throughout the season and watch as many teams as you can on TV, then I think all of those things will give you insights that will increase your odds above 50%. Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 02, 2012, 03:20:26 PM Given my less than stellar record it likely doesn't matter what games you choose. True that! not much competition down here at the bottom since ricky left :-[Plenty of games left. As more data are accumulated and chance gives way to the authority of a larger sample of observations, we will all end up between an average of 4-6 and 6-4, within the poll's margin of error. I don't agree with this. This would be true if the outcome of the picks where purely chance, but it is not. The betting lines are set so that there is an equal amount of money on both sides. Therefore the betting lines are set based on perception of what the difference in score will be. To the degree that you are able to predict the outcomes better than the mass perception, you will win. In other words, if you can identify where all the lemmings are buying into the hype of a team and therefore skewing the betting lines, you will increase your odds above simple chance. It is very similar to the stock market actually. I actually am working on something that will add this wrinkle to the contest. At some point I plan to let each person choose which 10 games they want to pick each week. This will give each member a chance to survey all the available games and pick on the ones where they believe there is more value. I will require 10 games to keep the scoring easy, but if you get to choose your own 10 games then you can pick the games where you think the point spread is skewed due to one team being overhyped, etc. This will bring even more skill into the contest. Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: BAMAWV on October 02, 2012, 03:22:39 PM Let's take a look at last years winner for example. Jamos had a record of 102-70 if you count all the games instead of dropping the 2 lowest weekly scores. I believe his record was that good because he has better insight into how the games will turn out compared to the mass perception among people who are betting on the games. Disagreed. That betting line supposedly evens out the two teams, by, as you said, the perception of the gamblers. This puts a lot of games to within a FG or a missed FG many times. So you can study til you are purple but to increase your odds with that many picks you need LADY LUCK. HTH Now if you make your picks by just randomly going through there and not paying attention, then yes, you will probably come in somewhere close to 50% given a large enough sample. However if you look at each game and study the two teams involved, look at how they have fared in the previous weeks, who they have played against, pay attention throughout the season and watch as many teams as you can on TV, then I think all of those things will give you insights that will increase your odds above 50%. Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 02, 2012, 03:30:19 PM Let's take a look at last years winner for example. Jamos had a record of 102-70 if you count all the games instead of dropping the 2 lowest weekly scores. I believe his record was that good because he has better insight into how the games will turn out compared to the mass perception among people who are betting on the games. Disagreed. That betting line supposedly evens out the two teams, by, as you said, the perception of the gamblers. This puts a lot of games to within a FG or a missed FG many times. So you can study til you are purple but to increase your odds with that many picks you need LADY LUCK. HTH Now if you make your picks by just randomly going through there and not paying attention, then yes, you will probably come in somewhere close to 50% given a large enough sample. However if you look at each game and study the two teams involved, look at how they have fared in the previous weeks, who they have played against, pay attention throughout the season and watch as many teams as you can on TV, then I think all of those things will give you insights that will increase your odds above 50%. Perception being the key word there. There is a lot of money put on games by people who have no idea what they are doing (see Floyd Mayweather's 3 million bet on Michigan). You don't have to always be right, but if you can be right more than the Floyd Mayweather's of the world then you increase your chances above 50% IMO. I would not be surprised to see the same group of guys finishing close to the top of our contest each year. I suspect the guys who spend the most time paying attention to college football in general will tend to bubble to the top. Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: BAMAWV on October 02, 2012, 03:42:53 PM Let's take a look at last years winner for example. Jamos had a record of 102-70 if you count all the games instead of dropping the 2 lowest weekly scores. I believe his record was that good because he has better insight into how the games will turn out compared to the mass perception among people who are betting on the games. Disagreed. That betting line supposedly evens out the two teams, by, as you said, the perception of the gamblers. This puts a lot of games to within a FG or a missed FG many times. So you can study til you are purple but to increase your odds with that many picks you need LADY LUCK. HTH Now if you make your picks by just randomly going through there and not paying attention, then yes, you will probably come in somewhere close to 50% given a large enough sample. However if you look at each game and study the two teams involved, look at how they have fared in the previous weeks, who they have played against, pay attention throughout the season and watch as many teams as you can on TV, then I think all of those things will give you insights that will increase your odds above 50%. Perception being the key word there. There is a lot of money put on games by people who have no idea what they are doing (see Floyd Mayweather's 3 million bet on Michigan). You don't have to always be right, but if you can be right more than the Floyd Mayweather's of the world then you increase your chances above 50% IMO. I would not be surprised to see the same group of guys finishing close to the top of our contest each year. I suspect the guys who spend the most time paying attention to college football in general will tend to bubble to the top. Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: BAMAWV on October 02, 2012, 03:48:03 PM Let's take a look at last years winner for example. Jamos had a record of 102-70 if you count all the games instead of dropping the 2 lowest weekly scores. I believe his record was that good because he has better insight into how the games will turn out compared to the mass perception among people who are betting on the games. Disagreed. That betting line supposedly evens out the two teams, by, as you said, the perception of the gamblers. This puts a lot of games to within a FG or a missed FG many times. So you can study til you are purple but to increase your odds with that many picks you need LADY LUCK. HTH Now if you make your picks by just randomly going through there and not paying attention, then yes, you will probably come in somewhere close to 50% given a large enough sample. However if you look at each game and study the two teams involved, look at how they have fared in the previous weeks, who they have played against, pay attention throughout the season and watch as many teams as you can on TV, then I think all of those things will give you insights that will increase your odds above 50%. Perception being the key word there. There is a lot of money put on games by people who have no idea what they are doing (see Floyd Mayweather's 3 million bet on Michigan). You don't have to always be right, but if you can be right more than the Floyd Mayweather's of the world then you increase your chances above 50% IMO. I would not be surprised to see the same group of guys finishing close to the top of our contest each year. I suspect the guys who spend the most time paying attention to college football in general will tend to bubble to the top. Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 02, 2012, 03:49:30 PM That is a good way to go for the bowl games since we pick them all instead of the ones we think are easiest. Maybe I can get that in place for this year.
I need more robots. :think: :lol: Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 02, 2012, 03:51:06 PM Let's take a look at last years winner for example. Jamos had a record of 102-70 if you count all the games instead of dropping the 2 lowest weekly scores. I believe his record was that good because he has better insight into how the games will turn out compared to the mass perception among people who are betting on the games. Disagreed. That betting line supposedly evens out the two teams, by, as you said, the perception of the gamblers. This puts a lot of games to within a FG or a missed FG many times. So you can study til you are purple but to increase your odds with that many picks you need LADY LUCK. HTH Now if you make your picks by just randomly going through there and not paying attention, then yes, you will probably come in somewhere close to 50% given a large enough sample. However if you look at each game and study the two teams involved, look at how they have fared in the previous weeks, who they have played against, pay attention throughout the season and watch as many teams as you can on TV, then I think all of those things will give you insights that will increase your odds above 50%. Perception being the key word there. There is a lot of money put on games by people who have no idea what they are doing (see Floyd Mayweather's 3 million bet on Michigan). You don't have to always be right, but if you can be right more than the Floyd Mayweather's of the world then you increase your chances above 50% IMO. I would not be surprised to see the same group of guys finishing close to the top of our contest each year. I suspect the guys who spend the most time paying attention to college football in general will tend to bubble to the top. But are they basing their line on what they think the outcome of the game will be, or what they think the betting public's perception is going to be so that they have even money on both sides from the beginning? :think: Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: BAMAWV on October 02, 2012, 03:52:12 PM That is a good way to go for the bowl games since we pick them all instead of the ones we think are easiest. Maybe I can get that in place for this year. I'd give you a hand but I am too busy not insulting people.I need more robots. :think: :lol: Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 02, 2012, 04:33:52 PM That is a good way to go for the bowl games since we pick them all instead of the ones we think are easiest. Maybe I can get that in place for this year. I'd give you a hand but I am too busy not insulting people.I need more robots. :think: :lol: :lol: You have shown great restraint. #+ Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 02, 2012, 08:11:00 PM The games are posted.
Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Catch Prothro on October 02, 2012, 09:35:13 PM ay caramba! what have we done?
Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: ALTideUp on October 02, 2012, 11:00:42 PM Thanks Coach. This is a lot of fun.
Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: BAMAWV on October 02, 2012, 11:05:26 PM Thanks Coach. This is a lot of fun. Not sure you're taking your picks serious enough. HTHTitle: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: BAMAWV on October 02, 2012, 11:14:07 PM Thanks Coach. This is a lot of fun. Not sure you're taking your picks serious enough. HTHTitle: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: ALTideUp on October 03, 2012, 12:34:02 AM Thanks Coach. This is a lot of fun. Not sure you're taking your picks serious enough. HTHI'm tellin you bro, if 40 chimps pick these games, the distribution of results would be about the same. The proof is that there are about as many 3-7 guys as 7-3 guys. 3-7 may be worse than chance, yet obviously no one is trying to do lousy. Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: ALTideUp on October 03, 2012, 12:43:34 AM Let's take a look at last years winner for example. Jamos had a record of 102-70 if you count all the games instead of dropping the 2 lowest weekly scores. I believe his record was that good because he has better insight into how the games will turn out compared to the mass perception among people who are betting on the games. Now if you make your picks by just randomly going through there and not paying attention, then yes, you will probably come in somewhere close to 50% given a large enough sample. However if you look at each game and study the two teams involved, look at how they have fared in the previous weeks, who they have played against, pay attention throughout the season and watch as many teams as you can on TV, then I think all of those things will give you insights that will increase your odds above 50%. That record amounts to a 5.01-3.5 record for an average week. That's 59%, or 9% over chance. My guess was that the results would range from 4-6 to 6-4. 6-4 is 60%. And Bob's your uncle. Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 03, 2012, 01:47:36 AM Thanks Coach. This is a lot of fun. Not sure you're taking your picks serious enough. HTH:lol: Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 03, 2012, 01:50:02 AM Let's take a look at last years winner for example. Jamos had a record of 102-70 if you count all the games instead of dropping the 2 lowest weekly scores. I believe his record was that good because he has better insight into how the games will turn out compared to the mass perception among people who are betting on the games. Now if you make your picks by just randomly going through there and not paying attention, then yes, you will probably come in somewhere close to 50% given a large enough sample. However if you look at each game and study the two teams involved, look at how they have fared in the previous weeks, who they have played against, pay attention throughout the season and watch as many teams as you can on TV, then I think all of those things will give you insights that will increase your odds above 50%. That record amounts to a 5.01-3.5 record for an average week. That's 59%, or 9% over chance. My guess was that the results would range from 4-6 to 6-4. 6-4 is 60%. And Bob's your uncle. :lol: But... but... 102 is so much more than 6. :-[ Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: BAMAWV on October 03, 2012, 04:46:29 AM Let's take a look at last years winner for example. Jamos had a record of 102-70 if you count all the games instead of dropping the 2 lowest weekly scores. I believe his record was that good because he has better insight into how the games will turn out compared to the mass perception among people who are betting on the games. Now if you make your picks by just randomly going through there and not paying attention, then yes, you will probably come in somewhere close to 50% given a large enough sample. However if you look at each game and study the two teams involved, look at how they have fared in the previous weeks, who they have played against, pay attention throughout the season and watch as many teams as you can on TV, then I think all of those things will give you insights that will increase your odds above 50%. That record amounts to a 5.01-3.5 record for an average week. That's 59%, or 9% over chance. My guess was that the results would range from 4-6 to 6-4. 6-4 is 60%. And Bob's your uncle. :lol: But... but... 102 is so much more than 6. :-[ Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Catch Prothro on October 03, 2012, 06:48:53 AM With a large enough sample, the results should be a Bell Curve.
(http://www.daviddarling.info/images/Bell_curve.jpg) Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: ALTideUp on October 03, 2012, 07:11:45 AM We are SUCH GEEKS! But I love this forum.
Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 03, 2012, 09:30:39 AM This is all true, but I still say that if you pay attention you can find yourself on the right side of that Bell Curve. We will see where Jamos is at the end of the year, along with the other top guys from last year.
:lol: Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: ALTideUp on October 03, 2012, 12:41:27 PM With a large enough sample, the results should be a Bell Curve. (http://www.daviddarling.info/images/Bell_curve.jpg) Okay, here's the math related to ten question of whether we actuallys know anything about football. The use standard for judging a fluke is that something would occur more than 5 times in 100 just by chance. Assuming 11 regular season weeks picking 10 games per week, the winning percentage that puts you above chance is 58%. But that is the likelihood that one a specific one of us would be more accurate than chance. Assuming that there are about 40 of us playing, we have to correct for the fact that we get 40 tries at hitting 58%. When you make that correction, it would take someone hitting on 66% of their picks to conclude that that person hadn't simply guessed, that we can be 95% certain they actually have a clue. So there you are. Get 73 wins and you d'man. Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Catch Prothro on October 03, 2012, 01:03:45 PM Is that fuzzy math?
Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 03, 2012, 01:06:33 PM Good application of confidence intervals. I may add a page where we can see our lifetime win percentage without dropping any games just so we can see who is tracking better than chance.
#+ Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Leroy on October 03, 2012, 01:38:45 PM Good application of confidence intervals. I may add a page where we can see our lifetime win percentage without dropping any games just so we can see who is tracking better than chance. #+ :o Please don't do that :-[ Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: XBAMA on October 03, 2012, 01:55:31 PM maybe we should just stop picking games before we
start a nuclear war or launch a missile or two :lol2: Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 03, 2012, 02:36:57 PM Good application of confidence intervals. I may add a page where we can see our lifetime win percentage without dropping any games just so we can see who is tracking better than chance. #+ :o Please don't do that :-[ :lol: Maybe we only show the top 10 and leave the others anonymous. Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Leroy on October 03, 2012, 02:50:43 PM Good application of confidence intervals. I may add a page where we can see our lifetime win percentage without dropping any games just so we can see who is tracking better than chance. #+ :o Please don't do that :-[ :lol: Maybe we only show the top 10 and leave the others anonymous. #+ Speaking as a key member of the left side of the "Bell Curve", that sounds like a good way to handle it to me ;) Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: XBAMA on October 03, 2012, 02:59:35 PM #+ Speaking as a key member of the left side of the "Bell Curve", that sounds like a good way to handle it to me ;) +1 #+ Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: ALTideUp on October 03, 2012, 03:12:16 PM maybe we should just stop picking games before we start a nuclear war or launch a missile or two :lol2: Please previous comment about "great fun" Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: XBAMA on October 04, 2012, 07:30:39 PM well ... I will suck again this week
spent all of about 10 minutes researching my picks look out 4-6 here I come :lol2: ... if I'm lucky :unsure: Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: 2Stater on October 04, 2012, 07:39:08 PM well ... I will suck again this week spent all of about 10 minutes researching my picks look out 4-6 here I come :lol2: ... if I'm lucky :unsure: I have the sucketh about every week. My only claim to fame is that I haven't o-ferred yet. You had a great week last week. Congrats! Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Catch Prothro on October 04, 2012, 07:52:51 PM well ... I will suck again this week 10 minutes? You're working too hard! ???spent all of about 10 minutes researching my picks look out 4-6 here I come :lol2: ... if I'm lucky :unsure: Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: XBAMA on October 04, 2012, 08:01:50 PM thanks , but I thought you do better than me ...
I really shouldn't be doing this at all , that's one reason I haven't got to serious with it , makes me want to bet on games and that's the last thing I need to do ... not because I'm afraid I'll lose , but more afraid I'll win last time I took a year off from work and did nothing but bet football games ... it's an addiction of sorts , and when the money is rolling in you lose sight of a normal life and that leads to other problems . it wasn't but it could have been bad , just to close for comfort though . plus +++++ you know how wives are , don't need her upset ... :lol2: Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Catch Prothro on October 04, 2012, 08:16:38 PM thanks , but I thought you do better than me ... No way. I really shouldn't be doing this at all , that's one reason I haven't got to serious with it , makes me want to bet on games and that's the last thing I need to do ... not because I'm afraid I'll lose , but more afraid I'll win last time I took a year off from work and did nothing but bet football games ... it's an addiction of sorts , and when the money is rolling in you lose sight of a normal life and that leads to other problems . it wasn't but it could have been bad , just to close for comfort though . plus +++++ you know how wives are , don't need her upset ... :lol2: I'm a rank amateur who does no research but got lucky one week. You're the professional. Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: XBAMA on October 04, 2012, 08:23:23 PM no sir not me .... any way the bookie won't take my bets anymore
he said I was breaking him :lol: I'm kidding :lol2: well sort of , what it was is the 2nd 10 team winner I hit that week that made him mad :lol: Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Catch Prothro on October 04, 2012, 08:39:47 PM no sir not me .... any way the bookie won't take my bets anymore If it makes you feel any better, we only agree on 6 of the 10 games, so one of us is probably going to have a good week. :lol:he said I was breaking him Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: XBAMA on October 04, 2012, 08:44:45 PM I might make some adjustments , might not .
probably won't have the time tomorrow . good luck you should do fine ... I need to round up my old formula I used to pick games it worked great on the Pro's but would require some tweaking for college ... Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 04, 2012, 09:19:52 PM well ... I will suck again this week spent all of about 10 minutes researching my picks look out 4-6 here I come :lol2: ... if I'm lucky :unsure: If I'm not mistaken, you are in 1st place on the overall contest right now, by just a few points on the tie breaker. Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: XBAMA on October 04, 2012, 09:43:17 PM well ... I will suck again this week spent all of about 10 minutes researching my picks look out 4-6 here I come :lol2: ... if I'm lucky :unsure: If I'm not mistaken, you are in 1st place on the overall contest right now, by just a few points on the tie breaker. huh ? me ? :-[ oh crap :o you sure ? :unsure: recount ? :dunno: it's not possible ? is it ? :wall: Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 04, 2012, 09:45:48 PM You made me double check. Yep, you are in 1st.
http://www.crimsonredsports.com/index.php?action=pickem;sa=showwinners;contest=2;round=4294967295 Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: XBAMA on October 04, 2012, 10:16:03 PM WOW !
but so are you :worship: :lol: I would have never dreamed it :dunno: I only had like one good week though , man that's crazy :unsure: I need to stop now #+ :lol: Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 04, 2012, 10:44:37 PM Consistency is the key.
Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 05, 2012, 10:57:32 AM Only 24 more hours to get your picks in for this week.
Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: BAMAWV on October 05, 2012, 11:13:36 AM Only 24 more hours to get your picks in for this week. You mean my preconceived prognostications of future athletic outcomes relying on statistical averages but varied by random occurrences? Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: ricky023 on October 05, 2012, 11:25:13 AM WOW! BAMAWV, that sounds a Chemistry test with what you said. Man you are a very articulate person. LOL,,, RTR!
Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: BAMAWV on October 05, 2012, 12:03:17 PM WOW! BAMAWV, that sounds a Chemistry test with what you said. Man you are a very articulate person. LOL,,, RTR! First time I've been called that! I'm sorta/kinda at a loss for words.Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 05, 2012, 12:15:10 PM :lol:
Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Hannibal Lecter, MD on October 05, 2012, 01:25:42 PM WOW! BAMAWV, that sounds a Chemistry test with what you said. Man you are a very articulate person. LOL,,, RTR! First time I've been called that! I'm sorta/kinda at a loss for words.Boy, first time that's happened too! Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 05, 2012, 01:34:23 PM WOW! BAMAWV, that sounds a Chemistry test with what you said. Man you are a very articulate person. LOL,,, RTR! First time I've been called that! I'm sorta/kinda at a loss for words.Boy, first time that's happened too! :lol: Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Catch Prothro on October 06, 2012, 08:39:37 AM These are some hard games to pick, and I keep going back and forth on at least 5 games.
GA v. USCe? LSU v. FLA? WV v. Texas? OK v. TT? Miami v. ND? Even Wash v. Oregon with 24 pts isn't easy. Who selected these games anyway?? ??? Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 06, 2012, 11:44:44 AM These are some hard games to pick, and I keep going back and forth on at least 5 games. GA v. USCe? LSU v. FLA? WV v. Texas? OK v. TT? Miami v. ND? Even Wash v. Oregon with 24 pts isn't easy. Who selected these games anyway?? ??? :lol: I am really regretting my Auburn pick right now. I don't think Auburn has a good team, I just figured the hogs would keep wallowing in the mud hole again this week. Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Catch Prothro on October 06, 2012, 11:57:32 AM These are some hard games to pick, and I keep going back and forth on at least 5 games. GA v. USCe? LSU v. FLA? WV v. Texas? OK v. TT? Miami v. ND? Even Wash v. Oregon with 24 pts isn't easy. Who selected these games anyway?? ??? :lol: I am really regretting my Auburn pick right now. I don't think Auburn has a good team, I just figured the hogs would keep wallowing in the mud hole again this week. Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: XBAMA on October 06, 2012, 02:24:08 PM I thought Arkie was going to pull out of the funk last week
took a chance on them again this week , the 9.5 spot from *U made it easier :lol2: Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Catch Prothro on October 06, 2012, 02:36:12 PM After seeing some LSU film on Gameday this morning, I was gonna change my pick from LSU to Florida. But by the time I got the computer back from my son, logged on and was in the process of editing my games, the clock expired before I could save.
Oh well, Les looked confident this morning. Maybe LSU will show up. Title: Week 6 Finalized Post by: WALL-E on October 07, 2012, 12:45:45 AM Week 6 has been finalized and the following winners have been awarded e-creds:
Sqwig +27 bama87 +26 Bamaphile +25 BAMADCHAMPSHIPS +24 Tidewest +23 Leroy +22 Jamos +21 2Stater +20 ricky023 +19 BAMAWV +18 BamaFanInACCLand +17 td57 +16 SUPERCOACH +15 XBAMA +14 shady_d4 +13 KoKoPuf +12 Catch Prothro +11 Hannibal Lecter, MD +10 ALTideUp +10 PCTide +10 bama57 +10 cbbama99 +10 Bandit +10 Merk +10 Crimson Legend +10 Chechem +10 pmull +10 Leewillie +10 Click here to view the full results for Week 6 (http://www.crimsonredsports.com/index.php?action=pickem;sa=showwinners;contest=2;round=6) Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: ricky023 on October 07, 2012, 09:11:50 AM Congrats to Sqwig and the other leaders. Good job and well deserved. RTR!
Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: BAMAWV on October 07, 2012, 09:36:22 AM Given my less than stellar record it likely doesn't matter what games you choose. True that! not much competition down here at the bottom since ricky left :-[Plenty of games left. As more data are accumulated and chance gives way to the authority of a larger sample of observations, we will all end up between an average of 4-6 and 6-4, within the poll's margin of error. I don't agree with this. This would be true if the outcome of the picks where purely chance, but it is not. The betting lines are set so that there is an equal amount of money on both sides. Therefore the betting lines are set based on perception of what the difference in score will be. To the degree that you are able to predict the outcomes better than the mass perception, you will win. In other words, if you can identify where all the lemmings are buying into the hype of a team and therefore skewing the betting lines, you will increase your odds above simple chance. It is very similar to the stock market actually. I actually am working on something that will add this wrinkle to the contest. At some point I plan to let each person choose which 10 games they want to pick each week. This will give each member a chance to survey all the available games and pick on the ones where they believe there is more value. I will require 10 games to keep the scoring easy, but if you get to choose your own 10 games then you can pick the games where you think the point spread is skewed due to one team being overhyped, etc. This will bring even more skill into the contest. We were just playing around with it in Gulf Shores, but as X pointed out, it is easy to get consumed. Our bookie went to prison but I was paid in full at the time--DANG! Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: SUPERCOACH on October 07, 2012, 11:32:04 AM Congrats to Sqwig and the other leaders. Good job and well deserved. RTR! Ricky you were in 3rd place last night, just a little behind on the tie breaker, until that last Oregon game finished. You are in the top 6 on the overall contest right now. Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: Catch Prothro on October 07, 2012, 01:58:00 PM Congrats to Sqwig and the other leaders. Good job and well deserved. RTR! Ricky you were in 3rd place last night, just a little behind on the tie breaker, until that last Oregon game finished. You are in the top 6 on the overall contest right now. Title: Re: Week 6 Games Post by: ricky023 on October 07, 2012, 03:48:42 PM Congrats to Sqwig and the other leaders. Good job and well deserved. RTR! Ricky you were in 3rd place last night, just a little behind on the tie breaker, until that last Oregon game finished. You are in the top 6 on the overall contest right now. Nawwwww, lol, I'd run out of my bottle caps and then I would be mad. RTR! |