Crimson Red Sports

College football computer rankings can see distinct shifts from week to week, especially before conference play begins in earnest. That is one explanation for the changes seen at the top of the College Football Computer Composite coming out of Week 4.

Alabama moved up three spots to No. 1 this week while Oklahoma and Oregon slipped two and four spots, respectively. Both the No. 4 Sooners and No. 5 Ducks won games on the road against increasingly potent Air Raid offenses.

"You'll see a lot of jumping around and disagreement between the rankings for a few more weeks until all the schools are well connected," wrote Ken Massey, whose ratings make up one-fifth of the CFCC. "Right now those connections are very weak and unstable.

"Alabama jumped to (No.) 1 in Colley and Sagarin, but it's hard to pinpoint exactly why."
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2014/09/15/college-football-computer-composite-ranking-week-3/15666409/

'Cuz they're pretty good.  8)

If we could only decide who our starting QB is!

 :lol:

At this early point we are the only consensus playoff team. No other team has all computers placing them 4 or better.

At the end of the season there's going to be a loud debate about only conf champs getting into the playoff 4.  Just get ready for it.  The only sure way for Bama to get in is to win the SEC.

I don't usually follow Skarbinsky, but maybe they should just do what he suggests:


Of course, the rest of the piece is about how great the Barn's win was at Kansas State, despite that they should have lost that game without their lucky horseshoe.  I think the Aggies take them.  http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2014/09/my_first_four_now_includes_ala.html

I have to disagree somewhat. The Big Ten champ will have at least one loss, no way will they make the playoff against a 1 loss SEC team that is not the SEC champ.


 :popcorn2:

The Big Ten is not the issue, at least not this year.  But the ACC, Pac-12, and Big 12 champs will probably get in along with the SEC champ.  And there is a real possibility that the SEC Champ will have one loss, while FSU, Oregon, and Oklahoma could mow right through their cupcake schedules and be undefeated.  Meanwhile 6 of the 7 SEC West teams are currently ranked, and we have to play all of them, as does everyone else in the West.  Then the West champ has to play the best team from the East, which will probably be another top 5 or 10 team.  We are lucky that Ohio State is not going to go undefeated this year.  Imagine that scenario:  undefeated ACC, Pac-12, Big Ten, and Big 12 champs and a 1 or 2 loss SEC Champ.

If they want to give special consideration to conference champs, which is in the selection criteria by the way, then they need to go to an 8 team format.

I really think 2 of those 3 teams will have one loss. That will result in the very real possibility that 2 SEC teams could be in The Four. A 1 loss Big 12 team won't make the playoffs because their conference is basically a joke, like the Beg Ten.


 :makemyday:

OK...so what if the 4th spot comes down to a BIG-10 conf champ with one loss vs. an SEC West team, also with one loss, that didn't get to the SEC champ game.  The BIG will argue that the conf champ should take priority over the others.  Here's the latest PR speech:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/11575745/mark-dantonio-michigan-state-spartans-says-only-conference-champions-play-college-football-playoff

Just saying I expect this debate to get louder as selection day gets closer.  It's in the interest of the BIG to keep this debate going.

I agree with you.  The whole playoff system only came into existence as a direct response to 2011.  The other conferences want a panel of "experts" now so they can unfairly veto the unbiased computer models that correctly matched the 2 best teams, BY FAR, that year.

No doubt the Big Ten whiners will have all kinds of talking points and reasons to be included in The Four, but it won't change the perception that the Big Ten is very weak. The idea that Wisconsin which has a completely cupcake schedule, except for LSU (who beat them), can win out and go to The Four, just ain't gonna happen. LSU will probably lose 2 more games, which really dilutes Wisconsin saying they played an SEC team. Michigan State has a slim chance to make The Four if they win out. Let's say A&M goes 11-1, but does not win the Western division (loss to Bama who does go) no way A&M is left out of The Four. This season just keeps getting more interesting.


 :popcorn2:
 

No way A&M should be left out in that scenario.  However I am not convinced that they would be included if you have an undefeated Oregon, FSU, and Oklahoma.  Now I know that it is unlikely for all of those teams to go undefeated.  But the point is that even if they did go undefeated, A&M would be much more deserving in that situation, having played a much tougher schedule.  It will be interesting to see how the selections are made.

Think of it another way.  How do you like the selection process for basketball?  That is what they wanted to model this on.  Is there a bias in the basketball selection process?  Do overhyped conferences get more teams in than they deserve?  Do undeserving minor schools get in just for the sake of political correctness?  Do deserving SEC teams ever get left out because of bias on the selection committee?  Do most of the "big" basketball conference teams ever get eliminated early, while the handful of SEC teams routinely make it deep into the conference?

Had this selection process been in place in past years, no doubt Boise State or some other undefeated cupcake would have gotten in over a much more deserving SEC #2.

I think the reputation of the SEC is so huge now that some of the scenarios you are mentioning would not happen now. I prefer the human element to a computer. Who programs the computer, what are the criteria for rankings, how do you measure all the intangibles? No matter what, there will always be controversy, especially picking #4 and #5 for The Four, knowing #5 will be very unhappy. There is no perfect answer.


 :think: