Crimson Red Sports

Well, I don't see Alabama winning the National Championship as much as I hate it. We have only 11 returning starters and the defense took a huge hit. I don't care how much depth you have, experience is more important. A breakdown of starters returning from good programs are:

Alabama 11
TCU 17
FSU 16
Penn State 16  (I'm not sold on PSU as a real team, need to see what happens this year)
Oklahoma 16 (same as PSU due to new head coach)
Auburn 15
Wisconsin 15
Ohio State 15


Teams with large number of returning starters who still have to prove themselves to me:

NC State 17
Oregon 17
Texas 17
Kentucky 17
Washington State 16
Stanford 16
So. Carolina 16
Georgia Tech 16

Notre Dame 15
Miami 15
Arizona State 15
Memphis 15
Houston 15

Tennessee 14
Florida 14
Arizona 14

Washington 13



 :popcorn2:

Main NC contenders for 2017 per me after deep analysis of statistics & study of mathematical algorithms:

Ohio State
Florida State
TCU (Gary Patterson is an outstanding coach)
Oklahoma (based on their schedule & conference)
Wisconsin (same as Oklahoma)
Alabama


Totally not sold on USC.



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 #+ first off have an e-cred for the hard work. Looking at stats is fun but that is why we play the games.  :-X RTR!

Great work, MD and important stuff to think about.  But isn't there a old saying...something about  "lies, damned lies and statistics..."

Last year we had a number of sr's who came back and that kept some very talented underclassmen from being starters.  So to some extent it's the skill and ability of our returning players (who weren't starters) vs. the experience of other teams' returning starters.

Our returning players did get some playing time last year, and by late season they will have a lot more experience.  They are not starting from scratch.

But I'm very cautious about this Bama team.  We have a returning QB which is good, but he still has a lot to prove. How good will he turn out to be?  We still don't know.

Our DBs have been overall weak against a good QB and a good passing attack for several years.  Why should we expect this season to be any better?

OL play for last 2 - 3 years has been average.  Will this year be any better?

To me the FSU game is a toss up that could go either way.  But it will tell us a lot about this team.  I don't get the feeling that this team is ready to play a big game.  But we'll find out on Sat.

Excellent observations. We have an O-Line coach in his 2nd year, so maybe we will be much better in pass blocking. I think the O-Line will be a strength this year. I will defend our DB's. We have to put more pressure against the good teams with good QB's. Too much rushing of 3 or 4 defenders late in games when we need a sack.



 :clap:

chechem is psychic

You lost me.   ???

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Statistically speaking of course...

TCU has an excellent coach with a boatload of returnees and is a sleeper this year. TCU finished #3 in the country in 2014 and #7 in 2015. Patterson is 129-54 for a 73 % winning percentage at TCU. This is a critical year for TCU with all those returning starters, Stoops leaving Oklahoma, and Baylor self-destructing.

Same goes for Auburn, they have to put up or shut up with another Heisman winner at QB under Malzahn. Barn has been up and down for last 7 years and if they don't win big this year, then they become an average program like Tennessee, looking for their identity while they flounder around for answers. Both teams are at a tipping point but I think TCU is for real this year.



 :dunno:

Well I am going to have to agree with MD on the sleeper pick. TCU is ready to bust out with their returning players and they have the coach to do it. JMHO. RTR!