"PROJECTED PRESEASON AP TOP 24"

[Chechem]

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Phil Steele's best guess:

For the past several years I have projected the preseason AP Top 10 nearly six months in advance and I have correctly projected at least nine of the Top 10 teams each year. It is one of my more popular blogs in the off-season and this year with its overwhelming popularity I have decided to expand it for the first time to 24 teams! I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is NOT MY preseason Top 24 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 24 to come out at the start of the season. I have also strategically projected 24 teams and not 25 because I feel confident that all 24 of these teams will be in the preseason Top 25 while leaving room for a wildcard team that could slip into the Top 25 due to injuries, suspensions, transfers or preseason magazine projections.

Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WR’s is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.

Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the off-season. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season.

Using these criteria and a few more, I project the preseason AP Top 10 every year at the conclusion of the previous season, which in most cases is nearly six months in advance. Now as you all know, a lot can happen from now to August including injuries, suspensions, transfers, etc. If you want to see how I have performed with my Top 10 projections refer to my January 30 Blog. Also it should be noted that a couple of teams have been moved up or down to reflect what has happened since that last blog, which includes national signing day.

Now let’s take a look at this year’s projected Preseason AP Top 24 and keep in mind again these are NOT MY preseason Top 24 teams!

[KoKoPuf]

Phil is probably right but I think the previous year's champ should always start at #1 until they are beaten.

[BAMAWV]

Phil is probably right but I think the previous year's champ should always start at #1 until they are beaten.

If within reason. Starting the barn at #1 last year would have been ludicrous.

[Catch Prothro]

Click here for link

Phil Steele's best guess:

Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WR’s is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.
Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the off-season. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season.

Using these criteria and a few more, I project the preseason AP Top 10 every year at the conclusion of the previous season, which in most cases is nearly six months in advance.

I don't think he used those criteria.  LSU loses its two starting QBs and its star WR, Bama brings back AJ and 7 offensive starters.  Although starting RB and WRs are gone, backup talent showed it was up to the task, especially in the BCSCG.  Also, Bama dominated LSU in the bowl game. 

True, LSU returns a lot of talent on D, and they should be a great team, but their offense will be a big ? and a preseason #1, based on the criteria cited, does not fly.

[KoKoPuf]

Phil is probably right but I think the previous year's champ should always start at #1 until they are beaten.

If within reason. Starting the barn at #1 last year would have been ludicrous.

Even the Barn deserved to start at #1 until they were beaten. In my mind it is like boxing, you are still the champ until somebody beats you.

[Chechem]

Phil is probably right but I think the previous year's champ should always start at #1 until they are beaten.

If within reason. Starting the barn at #1 last year would have been ludicrous.

Even the Barn deserved to start at #1 until they were beaten. In my mind it is like boxing, you are still the champ until somebody beats you.

Guess I am among the minority, but I disagree.  The team that was #1 is no more.  The 2012 team is a different team from 2011 with different players (in part).

I remember Coach Bryant saying he thought the honor of being #1 should remain until they are beaten.  I disagreed back then too.   

[KoKoPuf]

I guess the 66 Bama team still tics me off.

[ricky023]

Phil is probably right but I think the previous year's champ should always start at #1 until they are beaten.

If within reason. Starting the barn at #1 last year would have been ludicrous.

Even the Barn deserved to start at #1 until they were beaten. In my mind it is like boxing, you are still the champ until somebody beats you.

Guess I am among the minority, but I disagree.  The team that was #1 is no more.  The 2012 team is a different team from 2011 with different players (in part).

I remember Coach Bryant saying he thought the honor of being #1 should remain until they are beaten.  I disagreed back then too.   

Hey Chechem I totally agree. Something besides your proof, is that if we start further back we are not as noticed and maybe the bulls eye is somewhat smaller. RTR!

[BAMAWV]

Click here for link

Phil Steele's best guess:

For the past several years I have projected the preseason AP Top 10 nearly six months in advance and I have correctly projected at least nine of the Top 10 teams each year. It is one of my more popular blogs in the off-season and this year with its overwhelming popularity I have decided to expand it for the first time to 24 teams! I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is NOT MY preseason Top 24 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 24 to come out at the start of the season. I have also strategically projected 24 teams and not 25 because I feel confident that all 24 of these teams will be in the preseason Top 25 while leaving room for a wildcard team that could slip into the Top 25 due to injuries, suspensions, transfers or preseason magazine projections.

Are these your picks, Chech?

[Catch Prothro]

I guess the 66 Bama team still tics me off.

I agree that the number one team from the prior year should start the following season at number one.

It makes more sense than putting Oklahoma up there at the beginning of last season.

[Jamos]

It makes no difference where Bama is ranked, all they have to do is win out and we will all be trying to get another BCSNCG ticket, regardless of what anybody else does. So let the pollsters have their fun, the cream will come to the top at the end. 

[ricky023]

It makes no difference where Bama is ranked, all they have to do is win out and we will all be trying to get another BCSNCG ticket, regardless of what anybody else does. So let the pollsters have their fun, the cream will come to the top at the end. 

You have the right answer to the key to victory. Nuff said. RTR!

[Chechem]

Click here for link

Phil Steele's best guess:

For the past several years I have projected the preseason AP Top 10 nearly six months in advance and I have correctly projected at least nine of the Top 10 teams each year. It is one of my more popular blogs in the off-season and this year with its overwhelming popularity I have decided to expand it for the first time to 24 teams! I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is NOT MY preseason Top 24 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 24 to come out at the start of the season. I have also strategically projected 24 teams and not 25 because I feel confident that all 24 of these teams will be in the preseason Top 25 while leaving room for a wildcard team that could slip into the Top 25 due to injuries, suspensions, transfers or preseason magazine projections.

Are these your picks, Chech?

Nope.  I'd put LSU 2nd or 3rd; USC 1st. 
And I expect LSU to continue their downward spiral unless they find some way to develop some discipline.  I'm okay with Bama at 3rd (until they beat Michigidiots, Arky and LSU).

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