Week 6 Games

[ALTideUp]

With a large enough sample, the results should be a Bell Curve.

Okay, here's the math related to ten question of whether we actuallys know anything about football. The use standard for judging a fluke is that something would occur more than 5 times in 100 just by chance. Assuming 11 regular season weeks picking 10 games per week, the winning percentage that puts you above chance is 58%. But that is the likelihood that one a specific one of us would be more accurate than chance. Assuming that there are about 40 of us playing, we have to correct for the fact that we get 40 tries at hitting 58%. When you make that correction, it would take someone hitting on 66% of their picks to conclude that that person hadn't simply guessed, that we can be 95% certain they actually have a clue. 

So there you are.  Get 73 wins and you d'man.

[Catch Prothro]

Is that fuzzy math?

[SUPERCOACH]

Good application of confidence intervals.  I may add a page where we can see our lifetime win percentage without dropping any games just so we can see who is tracking better than chance.

[Leroy]

Good application of confidence intervals.  I may add a page where we can see our lifetime win percentage without dropping any games just so we can see who is tracking better than chance.

  Please don't do that 

[XBAMA]

maybe we should just stop picking games before we
start a nuclear war or launch a missile or two 

[SUPERCOACH]

Good application of confidence intervals.  I may add a page where we can see our lifetime win percentage without dropping any games just so we can see who is tracking better than chance.

  Please don't do that 

Maybe we only show the top 10 and leave the others anonymous.

[Leroy]

Good application of confidence intervals.  I may add a page where we can see our lifetime win percentage without dropping any games just so we can see who is tracking better than chance.

  Please don't do that 

Maybe we only show the top 10 and leave the others anonymous.

   Speaking as a key member of the left side of the "Bell Curve", that sounds like a good way to handle it to me 

[XBAMA]

  Speaking as a key member of the left side of the "Bell Curve", that sounds like a good way to handle it to me 

+1   

[ALTideUp]

maybe we should just stop picking games before we
start a nuclear war or launch a missile or two 

Please previous comment about "great fun"

[XBAMA]

well ... I will suck again this week
spent all of about 10 minutes researching my picks

look out 4-6 here I come  ... if I'm lucky 

[2Stater]

well ... I will suck again this week
spent all of about 10 minutes researching my picks

look out 4-6 here I come  ... if I'm lucky 

I have the sucketh about every week. My only claim to fame is that I haven't o-ferred yet. You had a great week last week. Congrats!

[Catch Prothro]

well ... I will suck again this week
spent all of about 10 minutes researching my picks

look out 4-6 here I come  ... if I'm lucky 

10 minutes? You're working too hard!   

[XBAMA]

thanks , but I thought you do better than me ...

I really shouldn't be doing this at all , that's one reason I haven't
got to serious with it , makes me want to bet on games and
that's the last thing I need to do ...

not because I'm afraid I'll lose , but more afraid I'll win
last time I took a year off from work and did nothing but bet
football games ...

it's an addiction of sorts , and when the money is rolling in
you lose sight of a normal life and that leads to other problems .
it wasn't but it could have been bad , just to close for comfort though .

plus +++++
you know how wives  are , don't need her upset ... 

[Catch Prothro]

thanks , but I thought you do better than me ...

I really shouldn't be doing this at all , that's one reason I haven't
got to serious with it , makes me want to bet on games and
that's the last thing I need to do ...

not because I'm afraid I'll lose , but more afraid I'll win
last time I took a year off from work and did nothing but bet
football games ...

it's an addiction of sorts , and when the money is rolling in
you lose sight of a normal life and that leads to other problems .
it wasn't but it could have been bad , just to close for comfort though .

plus +++++
you know how wives  are , don't need her upset ... 

No way. 

I'm a rank amateur who does no research but got lucky one week. 

You're the professional.

[XBAMA]

no sir not me .... any way the bookie won't take my bets anymore
he said I was breaking him 

 


I'm kidding 


well sort of , what it was is the 2nd 10 team winner I hit that week
that made him mad 

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