SEC West Wide Open

[Marshal Dillon]

With the loss by Ole Miss to LSU, things have been blown wide open. Here are the games of interest:

Auburn

@ Ole Miss
A&M
@ Georgia
@ Alabama

Ole Miss

Auburn
@ Arkansas
Misses State

LSU

Alabama
@ Arkansas
@ A&M

Misses State

 Arkansas
@ Bama
@ Ole Miss


Alabama

@LSU
Misses State
Auburn

We play Miss. State after a physical game against LSU, at least the MSU game is a home game. Auburn has the hardest road, Ole Miss the easiest. Arkansas is the potential heartbreaker if they can upset some teams.


 

[ALTideUp]

Every SEC West team has 2 top ten opponents in the home stretch. That's ridiculous.

[Marshal Dillon]

Every SEC West team has 2 top ten opponents in the home stretch. That's ridiculous.

It's called eating your own. No way a 1 loss Big Ten team should go to the Four over a 2 loss SEC team.


 

[ALTideUp]

Every SEC West team has 2 top ten opponents in the home stretch. That's ridiculous.

It's called eating your own. No way a 1 loss Big Ten team should go to the Four over a 2 loss SEC team.


 

We have to learn that these arguments will only be convincing if, in the secondary bowls, every SEC takes their game seriously and beats the crap out of their ACC, PAC, and B1G opponents.Maybe next year the voters will remember.

[KoKoPuf]

If


AU beats Ole Miss
Bama beats MSU
OM beats MSU
UGA beats AU

Then, AU, Bama, OM, MSU all have two losses.

[bamaphil]

If


AU beats Ole Miss
Bama beats MSU
OM beats MSU
UGA beats AU

Then, AU, Bama, OM, MSU all have two losses.

Where is Bama's second loss?

[Marshal Dillon]

If


AU beats Ole Miss
Bama beats MSU
OM beats MSU
UGA beats AU

Then, AU, Bama, OM, MSU all have two losses.

Where is Bama's second loss?

I guess he is inferring that Barn beats Bama. Finally, proof that a Barn troll & spy has exposed himself & his name is KoKoPuf. Send out the troll alarm. SUPERCOACH, where are you? We need a disinfectant on this troll!

[ricky023]

If


AU beats Ole Miss
Bama beats MSU
OM beats MSU
UGA beats AU

Then, AU, Bama, OM, MSU all have two losses.

Where is Bama's second loss?

This also caught my attention. I don't see a 2nd loss for Bama and rightly so. Our future lies directly in front of us. RTR!

[McBaman]

Bama's just gotta keep winning and hope that Bad Bo shows up again.  All these teams are closing with tough, physical games so injuries and depth will be factors.

For us, LSU and MSU back-to-back is about as physical as it gets.  I'd love to see Mich St or FSU play two games in a row like that.

[N.AL-Tider]

Every SEC West team has 2 top ten opponents in the home stretch. That's ridiculous.

It's called eating your own. No way a 1 loss Big Ten team should go to the Four over a 2 loss SEC team.


 

That is the "next generation" of the same old argument we used with the BCS system.  Everyone used to say "no way a undefeated or 1 loss Big Ten team gets in over a 1 loss SEC team."  Now it has evolved to what you stated.  IMO, that is a desperation argument at best. Egotistical at worst.  At this point, Bama MUST win out and hope for some good luck to come our way once again.  OM will have to lose one more SEC game in order for us to make the SECCG but not necessarily the playoffs.  I can honestly see OM going to the SECCG and if they win that making the playoffs with 1 loss Bama making it as well.  I really have my doubts that as long as Bama is ranked in the top 4 that we would be left out considering the number of undefeated teams there are right now...

[KoKoPuf]

I did intend to include an AU win over Bama to complete my two loss scenario. Mea Culpa! I guess I could not bear the thought of it actually happening. Don't be too rough on me.

[Catch Prothro]

I'm not convinced that the SEC West Champ will have two losses.  At least one of these teams will have only one loss:  Bama, Miss. State, Ole Miss. 

Bama's best scenario is winning out and Ole Miss losing one more game. 

If both teams win out then Ole Miss owns the first tie breaker v. Bama, so Ole Miss losing again is critical -- I don't know if a 3-way tie would resolve in Bama's favor, although they should be the highest ranked of the teams if they win out.

[SUPERCOACH]

I'm not convinced that the SEC West Champ will have two losses.  At least one of these teams will have only one loss:  Bama, Miss. State, Ole Miss. 

Bama's best scenario is winning out and Ole Miss losing one more game. 

If both teams win out then Ole Miss owns the first tie breaker v. Bama, so Ole Miss losing again is critical -- I don't know if a 3-way tie would resolve in Bama's favor, although they should be the highest ranked of the teams if they win out.

There is no way for there to be a 3 way tie between Ole Miss, Miss State, and Bama at this point, at least not with the teams only having 1 loss.  For that to happen, Bama must beat Miss State or we will have 2 losses.  Then either Ole Miss or Miss State will lose when they play each other, giving one of them 2 losses.

It might be mathematically possible with each team having 2 losses, but that would probably knock us out of consideration for the playoffs anyway.

I will be surprised if Ole Miss runs the table though.  Too much pressure for a team that is not used to having a target on their back, and their offense is subject to self destruct at any point with Bad Bo at the helm.

[SUPERCOACH]

For that matter, it is going to be extremely tough for us to run the table.  Too much inconsistency.  If we play our game, we can beat ANYBODY.  But we have only done that for a full game once this year.  This is not a bad position to be in since we control how we play, and surely now that the stakes are so high the team will stay focused.  I think the biggest contributing factor to the inconsistency is anxiety, but now that they see what they are capable of maybe they will play with confidence the rest of the way.

[bamaphil]

For that matter, it is going to be extremely tough for us to run the table.  Too much inconsistency.  If we play our game, we can beat ANYBODY.  But we have only done that for a full game once this year.  This is not a bad position to be in since we control how we play, and surely now that the stakes are so high the team will stay focused.  I think the biggest contributing factor to the inconsistency is anxiety, but now that they see what they are capable of maybe they will play with confidence the rest of the way.

The good news for Bama:

1) LSU is not that great this year.  A win in Baton Rouge will still be difficult, but Bama is clearly the better team.
2) MSU is in Tuscaloosa.  I don't see Bama losing that game.
3) Auburn is in Tuscaloosa, and they're nowhere near as good as they were last year.  I think Bama wins easily.

So, if we get through LSU with a win I think the chances of finishing with one loss are very strong. 

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