"Beware the beauty contest for No. 4"

[WALL-E]

Beware the beauty contest for No. 4

By Brad Edwards
Published November 18, 2014, 06:40:29 PM

Say what you will about the College Football Playoff selection committee, but they’ve set the stage for drama over the season’s final three weekends -- whether they did so intentionally or not. Florida State is the lone undefeated team from the Power 5 conferences, but if the season ended today, the committee would be shipping FSU to Pasadena for a semifinal game against Oregon. And unless the Seminoles start winning more impressively, that’s probably not going to change unless Alabama or Oregon were to lose again. Read more...

[Chechem]

Mississippi State is the top-seven team that’s least likely to be a conference champion, so the Bulldogs might’ve been in a desperate position if they had fallen out of the top four this week. But they did not. Will MSU eventually get jumped by a conference champion?

YES. 
The way this is setting up, Ohio State will jump Miss State if they win the BIG TEN.  Sorry, but that's the way it's looking.

 

[N.AL-Tider]

Miss State still has to play Vanderbilt and Ole Miss.  Pretty sure they will easily handle Vandy.  If they can somehow cruise over Ole Miss then they might just hang onto that #4 spot.  Those last two victories for them have to be very decisive though IMO...

[Chechem]

Miss State still has to play Vanderbilt and Ole Miss.  Pretty sure they will easily handle Vandy.  If they can somehow cruise over Ole Miss then they might just hang onto that #4 spot.  Those last two victories for them have to be very decisive though IMO...

But MSU stays home the week of the conference-championship (CC) games.
That is huge.
Plus, the Committee has already established a premium on CCs.

 

[2Stater]

Miss State still has to play Vanderbilt and Ole Miss.  Pretty sure they will easily handle Vandy.  If they can somehow cruise over Ole Miss then they might just hang onto that #4 spot.  Those last two victories for them have to be very decisive though IMO...

But MSU stays home the week of the conference-championship (CC) games.
That is huge.
Plus, the Committee has already established a premium on CCs.

 

tOSU still has to play a white hot Wisconsin team. Not the same team that lost to LSU. The committee also appears to favor the Big 12 over the B1G at this point, and most pundits seem to think it will stay that way. An argument has to be made for Miss St if they win out, that they only lost to the #1 team in the country.

Having said that, I don't trust the committee, so we'll see what happens.

[bamaphil]

If Bama wins out and MSU's only loss is on the road to Bama, I don't see how the committee takes any other one loss team over them; even a conference champion. 

[Chechem]

If Bama wins out and MSU's only loss is on the road to Bama, I don't see how the committee takes any other one loss team over them; even a conference champion.  

I can foresee a thread asking for predictions about this (with e-creds on the table).

 

[2Stater]

If Bama wins out and MSU's only loss is on the road to Bama, I don't see how the committee takes any other one loss team over them; even a conference champion.  

I can foresee a thread asking for predictions about this (with e-creds on the table).

 

Who would start such a thread, pray tell? 

[Catch Prothro]

Despite a lot of SEC love from the committee, I just don't see them keeping two SEC teams in the playoffs this year.  That will rankle too many fans.  So if Bama wins out, it is Bama.  If Bama loses, it is MS St. 

Assuming Bama win out, I think either a Big12 team, TCU or Baylor, or Ohio State will eventually jump MS St. as a conference champion.  That component of the equation has not yet been considered. 

That's not necessarily a bad thing for Bama.  It is tough to beat the same good team twice in the same season.  And playing MS. State on a neutral site will be different than playing them in Tuscaloosa.  And Bama has been a different team on the road -- hopefully something it is curing.

[ricky023]

If we win out and I feel that MSU will win out then I don't see where the group can leave MSU out. RTR!

[ALTideUp]

Despite a lot of SEC love from the committee, I just don't see them keeping two SEC teams in the playoffs this year.  That will rankle too many fans.  So if Bama wins out, it is Bama.  If Bama loses, it is MS St. 

Assuming Bama win out, I think either a Big12 team, TCU or Baylor, or Ohio State will eventually jump MS St. as a conference champion.  That component of the equation has not yet been considered. 

That's not necessarily a bad thing for Bama.  It is tough to beat the same good team twice in the same season.  And playing MS. State on a neutral site will be different than playing them in Tuscaloosa.  And Bama has been a different team on the road -- hopefully something it is curing.

I have similar thoughts about this. I think the committee is keeping a second SEC West team in the top 4 in case Bama beats Auburn but loses the SECCG. At two loses Bama would have to be dropped out of the top 4. If MSU wasn't in there already, with no one big game left to play, they would have a hard time getting into the top 4 from the 5 or 6 spot.

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