This sums it up. Read entire article.
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Benjamin Disraeli
Have you ever watched a game and thought: "That team is way better than the score suggests." Or the opposite: "Geez, I cannot believe that team is unbeaten."
Of course you have. It's the eternal battle of eye test versus stat sheet, or as we're calling it, man versus metric. ESPN Stats & Information analytics writer Sharon Katz takes a run through some of the more debatable data, and then ESPN senior writer Mark Schlabach offers his take.
Ole Miss over Alabama
Sharon Katz: I was as surprised as anyone to see that Ole Miss was the top team in ESPN's Football Power Index and has a 56 percent chance to beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Digging deeper into the numbers, however, it became clear why FPI favors the Rebels. Heading into the season, FPI expected Ole Miss to be one of the top defenses in the nation but had questions about its offense. After scoring 70-plus points in back-to-back games and posting the highest offensive efficiency in the FBS, Ole Miss now has a top-10 offense to go with its top defense. It's important to note that all of ESPN's metrics are opponent-adjusted, so FPI accounts for Ole Miss' weak schedule. This game will likely come down to which team can make more plays on offense, and heading into the game, FPI gives the Rebels and quarterback Chad Kelly (No. 1 in Total QBR) the edge. Ole Miss beat Alabama last season, so it's not inconceivable to think it can do it again in 2015.
Mark Schlabach: I've been as impressed with Ole Miss' offense as anyone during the first two weeks. The Rebels have posted 73 points or more in back-to-back games for the first time in school history, but now, as the kids like to say (or used to like to say), it's about to get real. Metrics might be on the Rebels' side against Alabama, but history isn't. I was surprised that the Rebels upset the Crimson Tide 23-17 at home last season. It's going to be very difficult to beat them two seasons in row. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Ole Miss would be the first team since Notre Dame in 1973 and '74 to defeat top-three Alabama teams in consecutive seasons. In fact, Alabama coach Nick Saban is 9-1 against teams that defeated the Tide in a previous season. The lone loss came against LSU in 2011, and the Tide still beat the Tigers in the game that mattered most that season, a 21-0 win in the BCS National Championship. Plus, Ole Miss is a woeful 1-35-1 in games against the Tide played in the state of Alabama. Beating the Tide at home is one thing, but beating them in their home state is an entirely different animal.
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