Pretty good analysis but I think Bama has a better shot than this guy. Realistically, the later the loss the worse it hurts. So if OSU loses to OU they are dead. I think the same applies to LSU. Lose to Arky or UGA and they drop several spots. Oklahoma seems to be setting in a good spot and might jump Bama, I'll be somewhat surprised if Oregon did.
I don't think OU will jump Bama since Texas Tech has lost horribly ever since they beat OU. Out of all the 1 loss teams, Bama has the most respectable loss by far.